Modelo integrado de riesgo, consultoría ambiental y capacidad institucional municipal ecuatoriana comparada
Palabras clave:
gestión del riesgo de desastres, consultoría ambiental, capacidad institucional, gobernanza local, modelos cuantitativos
Resumen
La gestión del riesgo de desastres a nivel municipal presenta limitaciones estructurales asociadas tanto a la calidad del conocimiento técnico empleado en la planificación como a la capacidad institucional para incorporarlo en la toma de decisiones. Este estudio tiene como objetivo validar un modelo cuantitativo integrado para estimar el Riesgo de Desastres Efectivo, incorporando explícitamente la calidad de la consultoría ambiental y la capacidad institucional municipal como determinantes del riesgo. El modelo adopta una estructura multiplicativa que combina amenaza, exposición y vulnerabilidad con dos índices compuestos: el Índice de Calidad de la Consultoría Ambiental y el Índice de Capacidad Institucional Municipal. La metodología integra construcción y validación de indicadores compuestos, análisis factorial, modelos econométricos con términos de interacción, simulaciones Monte Carlo y validación externa con datos históricos. Los resultados evidencian que el Índice de Calidad de la Consultoría Ambiental y el Capacidad Institucional Municipal reducen significativamente el ERD y que su interacción genera un efecto complementario que amplifica la reducción del riesgo. Se concluye que el riesgo municipal es un resultado institucional y cognitivo, condicionado por la calidad del conocimiento técnico y la capacidad organizacional para aplicarlo.
Citas
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Maturana, P. (2011). Evaluación de riesgos y gestión en desastres. 10 preguntas para la década actual. Revista Médica Clínica Las Condes, 22(5), 545–555. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0716-8640(11)70465-5
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Morales, J. P. (2023). Sistema de alerta temprana y franja de protección hídrica en el Río Cabeno-Ecuador. Revista Ingeniería, 7(17), 255–264. https://doi.org/10.33996/revistaingenieria.v7i17.104
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Wither, D., Orchiston, C., Cradock, N., & Nel, E. (2021). Advancing practical applications of resilience in Aotearoa-New Zealand. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12409-260301
Ansell, C., Sørensen, E., & Torfing, J. (2023). Public administration and politics meet turbulence: The search for robust governance responses. Public Administration, 101(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12874
Aranda, L. H., & Peira, Á. G. (2022). Los modelos de estimación de riesgo de desastres y la clasificación de sus niveles de riesgo. South Sustainability, 3(1), e051. https://doi.org/10.21142/SS-0301-2022-e051
Bersch, K., & Fukuyama, F. (2023). Defining bureaucratic autonomy. Annual Review of Political Science, 26, 213–232. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051921-102914
Bodenstein, R. (2022). Die Beratungsnorm ISO 20700. In R. Bodenstein, I. A. Ennsfellner, & J. Herget (Eds.), Exzellenz in der Unternehmensberatung: Beratungsprojekte erfolgreich durchführen—Leitlinien für Unternehmen und Berater (pp. 129–143). Springer Fachmedien. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-34589-1_6
Cardona, O. (2007). Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: Towards disaster resilient societies. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI).
Cardona, O. D., Aalst, M. K. V., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., Gregor, G. M., Rosa, P., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, E. L. F., Sinh, B. T., Décamps, H., Keim, M., Davis, I., Ebi, K. L., Lavell, A., Mechler, R., Murray, V., Pelling, M., Pohl, J., Smith, A. O., & Thomalla, F. (2012). Determinants of risk: Exposure and vulnerability. In Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 65–108). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.005
Corozo, J. P. M., Campos, A., & Martínez, M. F. C. (2023). Gobernanza de la gestión de riesgos de desastres en el cantón Gonzalo Pizarro, Ecuador. AXIOMA, 1(28), 17–23. https://doi.org/10.26621/ra.v1i28.860
Cutter, S. L. (2021). Urban risks and resilience. In W. Shi, M. F. Goodchild, M. Batty, M.-P. Kwan, & A. Zhang (Eds.), Urban informatics (pp. 197–211). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8983-6_13
Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B. J., & Shirley, W. L. (2006). Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. In Hazards vulnerability and environmental justice. Routledge.
Davoudi, S. (2023). Prefigurative planning: Performing concrete utopias in the here and now. European Planning Studies, 31(11), 2277–2290. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2023.2217853
Floridi, M., Pagni, S., Falorni, S., & Luzzati, T. (2011). An exercise in composite indicators construction: Assessing the sustainability of Italian regions. Ecological Economics, 70(8), 1440–1447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.03.003
Hallegatte, S., & Li, J. (2022). Investing in resilience and making investments resilient. PLOS Climate, 1(10), e0000077. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000077
Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Rozenberg, J., Bangalore, M., & Beaudet, C. (2020). From poverty to disaster and back: A review of the literature. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4(1), 223–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-020-00060-5
Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Higuera, O., Bachmann, M., Šakić Trogrlić, R., Handmer, J., & Dieckmann, U. (2025). Understanding multiple resilience dividends and system boundaries in disaster- and climate-risk management: A systems approach for enhanced decision-making. Environmental Research Letters, 20(4), 044026. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adac7a
Howlett, M., & Migone, A. (2025). Beyond evidentiary uncertainty: Mitigating political risks in policy designs. Policy Design and Practice, 8(3), 379–391. https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2025.2529624
Kelman, I. (2018). Connecting theories of cascading disasters and disaster diplomacy. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 172–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.024
Lavell, A. (2025). Redefining socionatural resilience within the human development framework: Disaster, risk and resilience in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., Trisos, C., Romero, J., Aldunce, P., Barrett, K., Blanco, G., Cheung, W. W. L., Connors, S. L., Denton, F., Diongue-Niang, A., Dodman, D., Garschagen, M., Geden, O., Hayward, B., … Park, Y. (2023). IPCC, 2023: Climate change 2023: Synthesis report, summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (Eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1–34. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001
Markhvida, M., Walsh, B., Hallegatte, S., & Baker, J. (2020). Quantification of disaster impacts through household well-being losses. Nature Sustainability, 3(7), 538–547. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0508-7
Maturana, P. (2011). Evaluación de riesgos y gestión en desastres. 10 preguntas para la década actual. Revista Médica Clínica Las Condes, 22(5), 545–555. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0716-8640(11)70465-5
Mechler, R., Żebrowski, P., Clercq-Roques, R., Patil, P., & Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2025). Positive externalities in the polycrisis: Effectively addressing disaster and climate risks for generating multiple resilience dividends. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 16(4), 575–593. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00661-2
Michaud, M. S., Sutton, J., Berry, K. L., Obermeier, H. B., Sheridan, H., Cox, G. E., Rafizadeh, C. M., Olivas, S., Johnson, N., Krocak, M. J., Trujillo-Falcón, J. E., & Sun, L. L. (2025). NextGen TV and advanced emergency alerting: The future of TV warnings and alerts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(8), E1489–E1497. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0162.1
Migone, A., & Howlett, M. (2024). The purpose of policy portfolios: Design, intention, and logic. Journal of Public Policy, 44(4), 809–825. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X24000229
Morales, J. P. (2023). Sistema de alerta temprana y franja de protección hídrica en el Río Cabeno-Ecuador. Revista Ingeniería, 7(17), 255–264. https://doi.org/10.33996/revistaingenieria.v7i17.104
Munda, G., Nardo, M., Saisana, M., & Srebotnjak, T. (2009). Measuring uncertainties in composite indicators of sustainability. International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 11(1–3), 7–26. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijetma/v11y2009i1-2-3p7-26.html
Tiwari, A. (2024). Collaborative governance and integrated risk management framework of natural disasters. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 18(6), 1668–1686. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABS-10-2022-0342
UNDRR. (2025). Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2025: Resilience pays: Financing and investing for our future. Stylus Publishing, LLC.
Wisner, B. (2025). Evaluación de la capacidad y vulnerabilidad. En Reflexionando sobre las contribuciones de Ben Wisner a la beca y los académicos.
Wither, D., Orchiston, C., Cradock, N., & Nel, E. (2021). Advancing practical applications of resilience in Aotearoa-New Zealand. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12409-260301
Publicado
2026-06-03
Cómo citar
Morales Corozo, J. P., Cejas Martínez, M. F., Parra Trávez, E. D., & Liccioni, E. J. (2026). Modelo integrado de riesgo, consultoría ambiental y capacidad institucional municipal ecuatoriana comparada. Revista Venezolana De Gerencia, 31(15), e31e1532. Recuperado a partir de https://produccioncientificaluz.org/index.php/rvg/article/view/45655
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