Determinantes regulatorios y geopolíticos de comercio exterior colombiano de aceite de palma

• Aníbal Alfonso Arrázola-Navarro https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4673-2710
• Manuel Antonio Pérez Vasquez https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2994-8626
• Loraine Martes Lapeira https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7274-3125
• Irina Arévalo Ribón https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1512-6404

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52080/rvgluz.31.115.6

Palabras clave: modelo gravitacional, exportaciones de aceite de palma, acceso a mercados, sostenibilidad, geopolítica

Resumen

El comercio internacional de commodities agrícolas se encuentra influenciado por factores regulatorios en materia ambiental y geopolítica que condicionan el acceso a los mercados internacionales. Este estudio analizó los determinantes del acceso a los mercados en las exportaciones de aceite de palma colombiano en el periodo 2011–2023, etapa de consolidación sectorial. La investigación adoptó un enfoque cuantitativo de alcance analítico basado en una estimación econométrica gravitacional aplicada al análisis del comercio internacional utilizando el estimador Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML). La base de datos corresponde a un panel (país/año) compuesto por 14 mercados importadores y 182 observaciones. Los resultados empíricos, derivados de dos especificaciones econométricas complementarias, muestran que la capacidad productiva, la proximidad geográfica y los acuerdos comerciales continúan explicando parcialmente los flujos comerciales; sin embargo, los marcos regulatorios y los estándares emergentes de sostenibilidad configuran nuevas condiciones de acceso a los mercados globales. En conclusión, los hallazgos sugieren una transición desde enfoques tradicionales basados en el modelo gravitacional, sustentados en determinantes económicos, geográficos y comerciales, hacia esquemas cada vez más condicionados por regímenes regulatorios diferenciados.

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