Prospectiva estratégica deportiva en el municipio de Sevilla, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
Abstract
El estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los aspectos estructurales del sector deportivo en el municipio de Sevilla, Valle del Cauca, identificando las variables clave y sus interrelaciones para comprender la dinámica del sistema deportivo local y apoyar la planificación estratégica y la toma de decisiones. Para ello, se usó la técnica MICMAC en tres fases (identificación, evaluación de relaciones, clasificación) con el apoyo de actores y expertos que posibilitaron la clasificación de las variables en autónomas, motrices, dependientes y de enlace con apoyo de software especializado, permitiendo construir mapas de influencia y facilitar la interpretación colectiva de los resultados. Los resultados evidencian que variables como Imagen Positiva, Apoyo y Cultura Deportiva son motores clave; la Formación de Capital Humano y el Rendimiento son factores dependientes en el sector. El análisis demostró tanto las influencias directas como las indirectas entre variables, revelando la complejidad y la estructura oculta del sistema deportivo municipal. Como conclusión, la aplicación de la técnica MICMAC® (Multiplicación de Matrices Aplicadas a una Clasificación) no solo permitió identificar las variables clave y sus interrelaciones en el sector deportivo de Sevilla, sino que también fomentó una reflexión profunda entre los actores acerca del comportamiento del sistema. Las variables institucionales y culturales son fundamentales para orientar políticas y estrategias deportivas locales, y se destaca la necesidad de una gestión integral que contemple tanto impactos directos como indirectos. Este enfoque aporta una base sólida para la toma de decisiones estratégicas que contribuyen al desarrollo sostenible del deporte en el municipio.
References
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Arapé, J. (2000). Programa de Prospectiva Tecnológica. Manual de metodologías. UNIDO.
Balbi, E. (2008). Metodología de la investigación de futuros: CELGYP y The millennium project. Buenos Aires.
Bañuls, V., & Salmeron, J. (2011). Fundamentos de la prospectiva en sistemas de información. ECOE.
Betancourt G, B. (2006). Análisis Sectorial y Competitividad. Poemia.
Blondel, M. (2005). El punto de partida de la investigación filosófica (Vol. 19). Encuentro.
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & van der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario planning. Futures, 37(8), 1155-1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
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Deaner, R. O., Balish, S. M., & Lombardo, M. P. (2016). Sex differences in sports interest and motivation: An evolutionary perspective. Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences, 10(2), 73–97. https://doi.org/10.1037/ebs0000049
Eagly, A. H., & Chaiken, S. (1993). The psychology of attitudes. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich College Publishers.
El Ghoch, M., Soave, F., Calugi, S., & Dalle Grave, R. (2013). Eating disorders, physical fitness and sport performance: A systematic review. Nutrients, 5(12), 5140–5160. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu5125140
Espinal R, D., & Medina V, J. (2021). Prospectiva del Desarrollo Deportivo. Universidad del Valle.
Espinal, D., Scarpetta, G., & Londoño, H. (2022). Prospectiva del sector deportivo del municipio de Guadalajara de Buga, Colombia. Visión del futuro en el 2030. Escuela de Administración de Negocios, 92. https://doi.org/10.21158/01208160.n92.2022.3334
Filiz, B., & Demirhan, G. (2024). Sport traditions, habits, rules, and policies: Examples from the world. En International Perspectives in Sport Tourism Management (pp. 38–45). Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003476658-5
Forsyth, C. J. (2005). Discerning the symbionic relationship between sport, leisure, and recreation: A note on the sportization of pastimes. Sociological Spectrum, 25(2), 127–131. https://doi.org/10.1080/02732170590883898
Fortune, M., & Oncescu, J. (2024). Community sport and recreation organizations’ inclusion of low-income families in sport and recreation in New Brunswick. Leisure/ Loisir, 48(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/14927713.2022.2159862
Fuchs, M., & Hovemann, G. (2022). El concepto de economía circular en el deporte al aire libre bienes e industria: Desafíos y facilitadores de actuales prácticas entre marcas y minoristas. (Sostenibilidad), 14(13). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137771
Gao, H. (2013). Building sports industry cluster promoting regional economic development-A case study of Henan Province. Life Science Journal, 10(1), 4160–4164. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84878977235&partnerID=40&md5=8bf9893fec75457ca9c010ab626cfc1f
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Gharajedaghi, J. (2011). Systems Thinking. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers In.
Gil, B. (2005). Inteligencia científica, tecnológica y regional. Manual del participante del Diplomado regional en gestión del conocimiento. Unisabana-Colciencias.
Godet, M. (1991). Prospectiva y planificación estratégica. S.G. Editores.
Godet, M. (2007). Prospectiva Estratégica: problemas y métodos. CEPAL. https://archivo.cepal.org/pdfs/GuiaProspectiva/Godet2007.pdf
Godet, M. (2013). La prospectiva y el análisis de escenarios. Ediciones de la Universidad de París.
Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2007). Prospectiva estratégica: problemas y métodos. Cuadernos de LIPSOR, 104(20), 169-187. https://es.scribd.com/document/326163989/Godet-M-y-Durance-P-2007-Prospectiva-Estrategica-Problemas-y-Metodos
Goffman, E. (1974). Frame analysis: An essay on the organization of experience. Harvard University Press.
Goffman, E. (2023). The presentation of self in everyday life. En Social theory re-wired (pp. 450–459). Routledge.
Goyeneche, G., & Parodi, T. (2017). Introducción a la prospectiva estratégica. Síntesis Lógica, 15(8). https://www.opp.gub.uy/sites/default/files/documentos/2018-05/Manual_Prospectiva.pdf
Hanggara, A. S. D., Soegiyanto, S., & Sulaiman, S. (2019). Learning infrastructure facilities for physical education, sports and health public elementary schools. Journal of Physical Education and Sports, 8(1), 26–32.
Hoven, M. (2022). ‘A Powerful Sporting Tradition among Canadian Basilians’: Early Twentieth-Century Catholic Priest-Coaches at St Michael’s College. International Journal of the History of Sport, 39(4), 366–384. https://doi.org/10.1080/09523367.2022.2066079
Jahn, J., Eichhorn, M., & Brühl, R. (2017). How Do Individuals Judge Organizational Legitimacy? Effects of Attributed Motives and Credibility on Organizational Legitimacy. Business & Society, 59(3), 545–576. https://doi.org/10.1177/0007650317717959
Jiang, H., Choi, M. C., & Leng, X. (2019). Study of the spillover effect on sport to Chinese regional economic development. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(5), 487–494. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v10n5p487
Jouvenel, H. (1993). “La Démarche Prospective. Un bref guide méthodologique”. Futuribles, 179, 51-69. https://www.futuribles.com/la-demarche-prospective-un-bref-guide-methodologiq/
Jouvenel, H. d. (2005). Invitación a la prospectiva. Futuribles.
Lock, D., Filo, K., Kunkel, T., & Skinner, J. L. (2015). The Development of a Framework to Capture Perceptions of Sport Organizations Legitimacy. Journal of Sport Management, 29(4), 362–379. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2014-0005
Martin, R. (1995). Technology Forecasting for Decision Making. John Wiley & Sons.
Medina, E., & Gonzalez, G. (2015). Estudio prospectivo de la recreación y el deporte de Acacias Meta año 2023. Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia - UNAD. https://repository.unad.edu.co/bitstream/10596/3511/5/80095404.pdf
Medina, J. (2006). Prospectiva y política científica. Revista Iberoamericana de Ciencia, Tecnología y Sociedad, 3(7), 21-39.
Medina, J. (2020). Abriendo caminos en la prospectiva y el desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe. Universidad del Valle.
Mojica, F. J. (2006). Concepto y Aplicación de la Prospectiva Estratégica. Revista Med, 14(1), 122-131. http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=91014117
Mosquera Diaz, G. A., & Betancourt Garzon, P. J. (2019). Plan prospectivo y estratégico con miras a lograr el liderazgo deportivo del Valle del Cauca para el año 2027. [Universidad Nacional Abierta y A Distancia UNAD] https://repository.unad.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10596/28106/1130613372.pdf;jsessionid=5CDA78A20ABA6E9D20737945D99EA3C7?sequence=1
Oncescu, J., & Loewen, M. (2020). Community recreation provisions that support low-income families’ access to recreation. Leisure/Loisir, 44(2), 279–302. https://doi.org/10.1080/14927713.2020.1760120
Oncescu, J., & Neufeld, C. (2019). Low-income families and the positive outcomes associated with participation in a community-based leisure education program. Annals of Leisure Research, 22(5), 661–678. https://doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2019.1624586
Pedersen, H. C. (2021). A Sporting Nation: Creating Sámi Identity through Sport. International Journal of the History of Sport, 38(12), 1210–1227. https://doi.org/10.1080/09523367.2021.2002302
Persson, M. F., & Eriksen, I. M. (2025). Sports participation as a reflection of social inclusion in youth: a holistic exploration of sport within young people’s lives. Sport, Education and Society. https://doi.org/10.1080/13573322.2025.2451354
Pfarrer, M. D., Decelles, K. A., Smith, K. G., & Taylor, M. S. (2008). After the Fall: Reintegrating the Corrupt Organization. Academy of Management Review, 33(3), 730–749. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2008.32465757
Pope, S. W., & Nauright, J. (2016). American-British Sporting Rivalries and the Making of the Global Sports Industry. Comparative American Studies, 14(3–4), 302–319. https://doi.org/10.1080/14775700.2016.1242694
Rahmani, N., Nasab, M., Taheri, M., & Biniaz, S. (2024). Exploring the Future of the Sports Industry Through an Economic Lens in 2031. International Journal of Innovation Management and Organizational Behavior, 4, 170-179. https://doi.org/10.61838/kman.ijimob.4.1.20
Richardson, A. (2025). Sport, Civic Participation, and Social Cohesion. En Sport for Social Cohesion: Theoretical and Practical Perspectives (pp. 50–62). Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003383291-6
Roberts, S., & Burton, N. (2018). Should I Stay or Should I Go? Managing Sponsor Relations through Athlete Transgressions. Journal of Global Sport Management, 3(2), 170–188. https://doi.org/10.1080/24704067.2018.1457969
Sanabria, J., Silveira, Y., & Cortina, M. (2023). Gestión organizacional deportiva revisiones sistemáticas: Vol. GADE2023. Repositorio FUNGADE. https://selloeditorial.fungade.com/index.php/fungade/catalog/book/28
Scholderer, J., & Frewer, L. J. (2003). The Biotechnology Communication Paradox: Experimental Evidence and the Need for a New Strategy. Journal of Consumer Policy, 26(2), 125–157. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023695519981
Smith, J., & Saritas, O. (2019). Science and technology foresight baker’s dozen: A pocket primer of comparative and combined foresight methods. Foresight, 13(2), 79-96.
Smolianov, P., Morrissette, J. N., Boucher, C., Dolmatova, T., Schoen, C., & Dion, S. (2022). Comparing the practices of USA skiing and snowboarding against a global model for integrated development of mass and high-performance sport. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 22(7), 1779–1791. https://doi.org/10.7752/jpes.2022.07222
Tamminen, K. A., Poucher, Z. A., Povilaitis, V., Nirmalanathan, K., & Spence, J. C. (2021). Examining the Experiences of Individuals Living in Low Income Using a Fee Assistance Program to Access Physical Activity and Recreation. Journal of Poverty, 25(1), 76–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/10875549.2020.1746947
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Published
2025-11-24
How to Cite
Scarpetta Calero, G., Hernández Londoño, H., & Perafan González, A. M. (2025). Prospectiva estratégica deportiva en el municipio de Sevilla, Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Revista Venezolana De Gerencia, 30(14), 1309-1328. https://doi.org/10.52080/rvgluz.30.especial14.27
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Artículos
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