Natural population movement and COVID-19: data from Russia

Palabras clave: Pandemia COVID-19, demografía, movimiento vital, mortalidad, geopolítica

Resumen

La pandemia de COVID-19 es altamente infecciosa, por lo que paralizó los sistemas de salud de muchos países provocando una alta tasa de mortalidad. Se cuestionan los datos oficiales sobre muertes por COVID-19 en muchos sitios, y las cifras se consideran varias veces más altas que los datos oficiales. En este sentido, el objetivo del estudio fue determinar el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el movimiento natural de la población y, además, evaluar la tasa de mortalidad real por COVID-19 en Rusia a partir de la construcción de modelos predictivos de mortalidad. El estudio utilizó datos de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y del Servicio de Estadísticas del Estado Federal de Rusia; se utilizaron modelos lineales y polinomiales para construir modelos de mortalidad. El estudio reveló una subestimación de la tasa oficial de mortalidad por COVID-19 de 2,4 a 6,8 veces, según la fuente de datos. Se produjo un fuerte aumento de la mortalidad en Rusia en 2020 entre las personas mayores de 50 años y, con el aumento de la edad, la mortalidad aumentó. Las principales razones del fuerte aumento de la mortalidad fueron las cardiopatías coronarias, las enfermedades cerebrovasculares y las enfermedades respiratorias, entre otras.

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Biografía del autor/a

Ilmir Nusratullin, Bashkir State University

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Bashkir State University, Ufa, Russia.

Igor Drozdov, Far Eastern Federal University

PhD in Psychology, Associate Professor, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia.

Alexei Ermakov, Russian State University of Physical Education

PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth and Tourism (SCOLIPE), Moscow, Russia.

Elena Koksharova, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University

PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg, Russia.

Maya Mashchenko, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University

PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg, Russia.

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Publicado
2021-12-24
Cómo citar
Nusratullin, I., Drozdov, I., Ermakov, A., Koksharova, E., & Mashchenko, M. (2021). Natural population movement and COVID-19: data from Russia. Cuestiones Políticas, 39(71), 986-1007. https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3971.60
Sección
Derecho Público