Macroeconomic Determinants of the Mortgage Loan. / Factores macroeconómicos determinantes del préstamo hipotecario.
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This research aims to assess the relationship of macroeconomic indicators and those related to the banking sector of the economy. They will be considered with the volume of mortgage loans granted on the example of the russian economy. It is shown that the increase in the weighted average mortgage rate is correlated with the increase in the volume of mortgage loans; the increase in the average nominal wage contributes to the increase in the volume of mortgage loans. The direct relationship between the volume of mortgage loans and problem mortgage debt can predict the inflating of the "credit" bubble.
RESUMEN
Esta investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar la relación de los indicadores macroeconómicos y los relacionados con el sector bancario de la economía. Serán considerados con el volumen de préstamos hipotecarios concedidos en el ejemplo de la economía rusa. Se muestra que el aumento de la tasa hipotecaria promedio ponderada, se correlaciona con el aumento del volumen de préstamos hipotecarios; el aumento del salario nominal medio contribuye al aumento del volumen de préstamos hipotecarios. La relación directa entre el volumen de préstamos hipotecarios y la deuda hipotecaria problemática puede predecir la inflación de la burbuja del "crédito".
References
ABEL, A & BERNANKE, B (2010). “Macroeconomics, (5th ed.)”. Addison Wesley, pp.764.
ABRAMKIN, SA, HAYALEEVA, CS, BAGAUTDINOVA, NG & KARPOVA, NV (2015). “Convergence of financial politics and regulation on the financial markets to the stimulation of the economy”. Asian Social Science, 11(11),pp.259-263
AGARWAL, S & LIU, C (2003).“Determinants of credit card delinquency and bankruptcy: Macroeconomic factors”. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1),pp.75-84
BAGAUTDINOVA, NG, KARASIK, EA, SAFIULLIN, LN & ISMAGILOVA, GN (2017).“Problems of regulation in financial markets”. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences,12(19),pp.4908-4912
BROCKWELL, PJ & DAVIS, RA (2016).“Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting”. Springer International Publishing Switzerland, pp.428.
BROOKS, С (2008). “Introductory Econometrics for Finance”. Cambridge University Press, p.674.
BULATOVA EI, POTAPOVA, EA & FATHUTDINOVA, RA (2019).“Monitoring and controlling banking system via financial stability assessment”. International transaction journal of engineering management & Applied sciences & Technologies, 10(16).
CAMPBELL, JY & COCCO, JF (2015).“A Model of Mortgage Default”. Journal of Finance. 70(4),pp.1495-1554
COWPERTWAIT, PSP & METCALFE, AV (2009). “Introductory Time Series with R”. Springer: Science+Business Media, p.262.
DIAZ-SERRANO, L & RAYA, JM (2014). “Mortgages, immigrants and discrimination: An analysis of the interest rates in Spain”. Regional Science and Urban Economics,45,pp.22–32.
GABRIEL, SA & ROSENTHAL, SS (2013).“Urbanization, agglomeration economies, and access to mortgage credit”. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43,pp.42–50.
GYOURKO, J & TRACY, J (2014).“Reconciling theory and empirics on the role of unemployment in mortgage default”. Journal of Urban Economics, 80, pp.87–96.
HAMILTON, JD (1994).“Time Series Analysis, 1st edition”. Princeton University Press, p.820.
JORDI, G (2008).Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the New Keynesian framework.Princeton University Press.
LOU, W & Yin, X (2014). “The impact of the global financial crisis on mortgage pricing and credit supply”. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. 29, pp.336–363.
NEUSSER, K (2016). “Time Series Econometrics. Springer International Publishing Switzerland”, p.42.
SAMERKHANOVA, AA & KADOCHNIKOVA, EI (2015). “Econometric analysis of the mortgage loans dependence on per capita income”. Asian Social Science.11(11),pp.55-59.
SHAO, S, WANG, Y & YAN, W (2020).“Administrative decentralization and credit resource reallocation: Evidence from China's “Enlarging Authority and Strengthening Counties” reform. 9(7),p.102530
STEINBUKS, J & ELLIEHAUSEN, G (2014).“The Economic Effects of Legal Restrictions on High-Cost Mortgages”. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 49, pp.47-72
WADUD, M, ALI AHMED, HJ & TANG, X (2020).“Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?”North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(2),p.101132
WOOLDRIDGE, JM (2013). “Introductory Econometrics”. A modern approach, (5th ed.) Michigan State University: South-Western Cengage Learning, p.865.
