Evaluation of the dynamics of the Venezuela-Colombia trade balance: application of unit root tests

• Leobaldo Molero Doctor en Economía. Docente de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Universidad del Zulia, Maracaibo – Venezuela.
• Esmeralda Villegas Doctora en Economía. Docente de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Universidad del Zulia, Maracaibo – Venezuela
• Sara Musio Economista. Investigadora Independiente, Maracaibo – Venezuela
• Leonardo Luzardo Estudiante de la Escuela de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Universidad del Zulia, Maracaibo – Venezuela

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/10.5281/zenodo.17980204

Keywords: Trade balance, external deficit, unitroot, persistence, bilateral trade

Abstract

Between January and April 2025, Venezuelan exports to Colombia suffered a sharp contraction, despite bilateral trade growing by 24.7% compared to the same period in 2024. This study evaluated the dynamics of the trade balance between the two countries between 1995 and 2024 using unit root econometric tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phi- llips-Perron, and Ng-Perron) applied to the annual series of the Venezuelan trade balance. The results indicate that the series is not stationary at levels, but is stationary after initial differentiation, indicating that the trade deficit is persistent over time. This re- flects that the imbalances are not the result of tem- porary fluctuations, but rather of structural factors such as the loss of competitiveness and Venezue- la’s weak production. The absence of an automatic reversion to equilibrium suggests that internal and external shocks have had lasting effects on the bi- lateral trade balance. This pattern underscores the need for long-term policies that address the struc- tural causes of the deficit, promoting production incentives, bilateral cooperation, and continuous monitoring mechanisms. The findings pave the way for future cointegration research to analyze the rela- tionship between the trade balance and key macro- economic variables.

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