BIOMASA Y CONDICIÓN OPERATIVA ASOCIADAS AL EXCEDENTE ELÉCTRICO EN INGENIOS
Resumen
La cogeneración con bagazo en ingenios azucareros presentó variabilidad operativa que condicionó el excedente y su relación con sustitución fósil, emisiones y costos. El objetivo del estudio fue explicar el excedente energético en operación real y caracterizar su encadenamiento con el consumo específico de fuel oil, las emisiones totales de GEI y el costo total de producción. Se empleó un diseño observacional retrospectivo con 84 observaciones mensuales y un enfoque PLS-SEM explicativo- predictivo, incorporando razón de bagazo, estacionalidad de zafra, escala de molienda y un cambio estructural post 2004. El modelo presentó SRMR=0.031 y explicó 72.2% de la variabilidad del excedente y 69.7% del consumo específico; asimismo explicó 98.9% de GEI total y 98.0% del costo total. Los efectos estimados indicaron que el excedente se asoció con la disponibilidad relativa de biomasa, la zafra y el régimen post 2004, mientras que la escala de molienda no resultó significativa; además, mayores excedentes se vincularon con menor intensidad fósil. Se concluyó que las palancas de mejora se concentraron en la gestión del balance de biomasa y la eficiencia del sistema vapor-potencia. Se recomendó complementar el análisis con indicadores de intensidad por tonelada y por MWh e incorporar monitoreo del tren de vapor.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Rodrigo Pazmiño-Pérez, Betty Pazmiño-Gómez, Luis Cagua-Montaño, Naomy Quiroz-Punguillo, Flor Guaman-Troya, Marianela Herrera-Martínez, Narcisa Becerra-Mendoza

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