A dívida pública municipal no Brasil. Análise e perspectiva // Public debt in brazilians counties. Analysis and prospect

• Rodrigo Roratto Universidade Federal de Santa Maria

Palabras clave: Dívida, Esforço, Circunstâncias, Municípios, Gestão, Debt, Effort, Circumstances, Cities, Management

Resumen

RESUMO

Estudos sobre a dívida pública concentram-se na busca por determinantes socioeconômicos, demográficos, controles fiscais etc., e, portanto, se limitam a não informar o quanto se deve a gestão que se é realizada. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho é explicar a formação da dívida pública municipal e verificar o quanto desta deve- se ao esforço da gestão, as circunstâncias e, finalmente, ao estoque da dívida herdado das gestões anteriores. A estratégia empírica baseia-se num painel de dados para os 5.565 municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2016 formado a partir de bases nacionais As estimativas foram obtidas a partir do modelo GMM System. Os resultados destacam que as circunstâncias e o estoque da dívida são os principais componentes da dívida pública municipal, em detrimento do esforço da gestão local. Portanto, uma nova gestão municipal enfrenta um cenário que limita a capacidade de administrar sua condição de endividamento.

Abstract

Public debt studies focus on the search for socioeconomic, demographic, fiscal control, etc. determinants, and therefore simply do not inform how much management is to be performed. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to explain the formation of municipal public debt and to verify how much of this is due to the management effort, the circumstances and, finally, to the debt stock inherited from previous managements. The empirical strategy is based on a data panel for the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2016 formed from national database. Estimates were obtained from the GMM System model. The results highlight that circumstances and debt stock are the main components of municipal public debt, to the detriment of local management effort. Therefore, a new municipal management faces a scenario that limits its ability to manage its debt condition.

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