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)
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De pó si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
La re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas, es una pu bli ca ción aus pi cia da por el Ins ti tu to
de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co “Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas de la Uni ver si dad del Zu lia.
En tre sus ob je ti vos fi gu ran: con tri buir con el pro gre so cien tí fi co de las Cien cias
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ción, dis cu sión y con fron ta ción de las ideas y avan ces cien tí fi cos con com pro mi so so cial.
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas apa re ce dos ve ces al año y pu bli ca tra ba jos ori gi na les con
avan ces o re sul ta dos de in ves ti ga ción en las áreas de Cien cia Po lí ti ca y De re cho Pú bli-
co, los cua les son so me ti dos a la con si de ra ción de ár bi tros ca li fi ca dos.
ESTA PU BLI CA CIÓN APA RE CE RE SE ÑA DA, EN TRE OTROS ÍN DI CES, EN
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gra fía So cio Eco nó mi ca de Ve ne zue la de RE DIN SE, In ter na tio nal Bi blio graphy of
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Di rec to ra
L
OIRALITH
M. C
HIRINOS
P
ORTILLO
Co mi té Edi tor
Eduviges Morales Villalobos
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Co mi té Ase sor
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J. M. Del ga do Ocan do
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Die ter Nohlen
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Asis ten tes Ad mi nis tra ti vos
Joan López Urdaneta y Nil da Ma rín
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Vol. 39, Nº 71 (2021), 986-1007
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Recibido el 01/09/2021 Aceptado el 22/11/2021
Natural population movement and
COVID-19: data from Russia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3971.60
Ilmir Nusratullin *
Igor Drozdov **
Alexei Ermakov ***
Elena Koksharova ****
Maya Mashchenko *****
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is highly infectious, so it paralyzed
the health systems of many countries causing a high mortality
rate. Ocial data on COVID-19 deaths at many sites are
questioned, and the gures are considered several times higher
than ocial data. In this sense, the objective of the study was to
determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the natural
movement of the population and, in addition, to evaluate the real
mortality rate from COVID-19 in Russia from the construction of predictive
mortality models. The study used data from the World Health Organization
and the Statistical Service of the Federal State of Russia; se used linear and
polynomial models to construct mortality models. The study revealed an
underestimation of the ocial COVID-19 death rate by 2.4 to 6.8 times,
depending on the data source. There was a sharp increase in mortality in
Russia in 2020 among people over 50 years of age, and with the increase
in age, mortality increased. The main reasons for the sharp increase in
mortality were coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and
respiratory diseases, among others.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; demographics; vital movement;
mortality, geopolitics.
* PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Bashkir State University, Ufa, Russia. ORCID ID: https://
orcid.org/0000-0001-7810-2945
** PhD in Psychology, Associate Professor, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia. ORCID
ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7311-4920
*** PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth
and Tourism (SCOLIPE), Moscow, Russia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7505-085X
**** PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg,
Russia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4956-5291
***** PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor, Russian State Vocational Pedagogical University,
Yekaterinburg, Russia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7071-6376