Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Esta publicación cientíca en formato digital es continuidad de la revista impresa
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197402ZU34
ppi 201502ZU4645
Vol.39 N° 69
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Diciembre
2021
Recibido el 10/04/2021 Aceptado el 16/06/2021
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De pó si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
La re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas, es una pu bli ca ción aus pi cia da por el Ins ti tu to
de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co “Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas de la Uni ver si dad del Zu lia.
En tre sus ob je ti vos fi gu ran: con tri buir con el pro gre so cien tí fi co de las Cien cias
Hu ma nas y So cia les, a tra vés de la di vul ga ción de los re sul ta dos lo gra dos por sus in ves-
ti ga do res; es ti mu lar la in ves ti ga ción en es tas áreas del sa ber; y pro pi ciar la pre sen ta-
ción, dis cu sión y con fron ta ción de las ideas y avan ces cien tí fi cos con com pro mi so so cial.
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas apa re ce dos ve ces al año y pu bli ca tra ba jos ori gi na les con
avan ces o re sul ta dos de in ves ti ga ción en las áreas de Cien cia Po lí ti ca y De re cho Pú bli-
co, los cua les son so me ti dos a la con si de ra ción de ár bi tros ca li fi ca dos.
ESTA PU BLI CA CIÓN APA RE CE RE SE ÑA DA, EN TRE OTROS ÍN DI CES, EN
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gra fía So cio Eco nó mi ca de Ve ne zue la de RE DIN SE, In ter na tio nal Bi blio graphy of
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nes Cien tí fi cas y Tec no ló gi cas Ve ne zo la nas del FO NA CIT, La tin dex.
Di rec to ra
L
OIRALITH
M. C
HIRINOS
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Co mi té Edi tor
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Asis ten tes Ad mi nis tra ti vos
Joan López Urdaneta y Nil da Ma rín
Re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas. Av. Gua ji ra. Uni ver si dad del Zu lia. Nú cleo Hu ma nís ti co. Fa-
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Vol. 39, Nº 69 (Julio - Diciembre) 2021, 581-604
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Current Trends in the Development
of International Terrorism: A Current
Understanding of the Problem
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3969.36
Ivo Svoboda *
Tymur O. Loskutov **
Oleksandra B. Severinova ***
Olha M. Peresada ****
Andriy O. Shulha *****
Abstract
The study examines the development of international terrorism
and the problem of its denition. Consequently, the objective of the
study was to generate a systemic view of international terrorism
and to identify current trends in its development. A structural
and functional analysis of international terrorism as a political
phenomenon was used. Based on the analytical model provided,
the development of international terrorism was divided into periods based
on political and geographical zoning. Three consistent principles determine
the key characteristics of international terrorism as a rational strategy of
unconventional political struggle: the transition to asymmetrical actions,
attacks on symbolic objects, and inuencing public opinion as the main
objective. This triality of characteristics linked to a model of the political
process denes the existence of international terrorism as a phenomenon
and provides a key to understanding its dynamics. It is concluded that there
are four periods in the development of international terrorism, divided into
two cycles with breaking points, ascending, and descending phases. The
proposed periodization of the development of international terrorism is
* Associate Professor, Guarantor of Security Management Studies, Ambis - Vysoká škola, Praha, Czech
Republic. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0941-4686. Email: svobodaivo985@gmail.com
** Doctor of Law, Professor, Department of Organization of Pre-trial Investigation of Kryvyi Rih Educational
and Scientic Institute, Donetsk Law Institute of the Ministry of Internal Aairs of Ukraine, Kryvyi Rih,
Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2686-9201. Email: Tymloskutov@ukr.net
*** PhD in Law, Associate Professor, Department of State and Legal Disciplines and Public Administration,
Faculty #3, Donetsk Law Institute of the Ministry of Internal Aairs of Ukraine, Mariupol, Ukraine.
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3013-9815. Email: alex4sev@gmail.com
**** PhD in Law, Associate Professor, Head of Department of State and Legal Disciplines and Public
Administration, Faculty #3, Donetsk Law Institute of the Ministry of Internal Aairs of Ukraine,
Mariupol, Ukraine. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7199-1938. Email: peresada.olha@
gmail.com
***** PhD in Law, Associate Professor, Department of State and Legal Disciplines and Public Administration,
Faculty #3, Donetsk Law Institute of the Ministry of Internal Aairs of Ukraine, Mariupol, Ukraine.
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5524-5433. Email: shulhadon1@ukr.net
582
Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
Shulha
Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
based on the identication of the centers as political-geographical areas,
where contradictions are congured and the political struggle that is part of
the logic of the terrorist strategy.
Keywords: international terrorism; political extremism; periodisation;
civil conicts; asymmetric actions
Tendencias actuales en el desarrollo del terrorismo
internacional: una comprensión actual del problema
Resumen
El estudio examina el desarrollo del terrorismo internacional y el
problema de su denición. En consecuencia, el objetivo del estudio fue
generar una visión sistémica del terrorismo internacional e identicar
las tendencias actuales en su desarrollo. Se utilizó un análisis estructural
y funcional del terrorismo internacional como fenómeno político. Sobre
la base del modelo analítico proporcionado, el desarrollo del terrorismo
internacional se dividió en períodos sobre la base de la zonicación política
y geográca. Tres principios consistentes determinan las características
clave del terrorismo internacional como estrategia racional de lucha
política no convencional: la transición a acciones asimétricas, ataques a
objetos simbólicos, e inuir en la opinión pública como objetivo principal.
Esta tríada de características vinculadas a un modelo del proceso político
dene la existencia del terrorismo internacional como un fenómeno y
proporciona una clave para comprender su dinámica. Se concluye que hay
cuatro períodos en el desarrollo del terrorismo internacional, divididos
en dos ciclos con puntos de ruptura, fases ascendentes y descendentes. La
periodización propuesta del desarrollo del terrorismo internacional se basa
en la identicación de los centros como zonas político-geográcas, donde
se conguran las contradicciones y la lucha política que es parte de la lógica
de la estrategia terrorista.
Palabras clave: terrorismo internacional; extremismo político;
periodización; conictos civiles; acciones asimétricas.
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Vol. 39 Nº 69 (Julio - Diciembre 2021): 581-604
Introduction
Topicality
It was believed that a number of reasons contributed to the spread of
international terrorism: the defeat of the Arab countries in the Six-Day War
of 1967, which revealed their military inability to resist Israeli claims to the
Palestinian territory, which encouraged Arab militants to seek asymmetrical
responses to military superiority; the spread of guerrilla movements that
chose the terror tactics in Latin America; spread of anti-government and
radical movements in the United States and Western Europe against the
background of anti-war sentiments (Jenkins, 1978). During the decades of
the 1970’s and 2020’s, international terrorism, as a phenomenon of world
politics, underwent changes and transformations associated with changes
in the international situation and world society as a whole.
These changes took place in several directions. The driving forces of
international terrorism have changed; new conict zones emerged, where
conditions arose for the transition to asymmetric actions characteristic
of terrorism; as world politics changed, so did the policies of countries in
support of international terrorism; there were changes in the organization,
forms and methods of conducting terrorist activity by its actors. International
terrorism is a rapidly changing dynamic phenomenon, remaining one of the
leading factors and threats to world politics.
1. Literature review
In modern academic research on the problem of international terrorism,
one can identify both the waves caused by the growth and decline of
interest in this phenomenon, and the conceptual division into the so-
called traditional and critical studies of terrorism. The root of academic
controversy is in the very denition of terrorism in general, and international
terrorism in particular, which constitutes a “denition dilemma” (Scremin,
2020). According to. Scremin’s apt denition, this dilemma manifests
itself at the academic, political and operational levels, which, accordingly,
hinders the creation of a single conceptual framework for the study of
terrorism; distorts the political discourse on terrorism and delegitimises
the means of combating it; and, ultimately, negatively aects international
cooperation eorts in the ght against terrorism. The inconsistency of the
basic understanding of the denition, which is a reection of the lack of
a stable consensus on the essence of the phenomenon, aects the whole
understanding of the problems of its structure and dynamics.
584
Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
Shulha
Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
The modern academic paradigm regarding the phenomenon of
international terrorism began to take shape after the terrorist attack of
September 11, 2001, and the ensuing War on Terror. Despite the extensive
experience of understanding international terrorism in previous decades,
it is characterised by three theoretical forces, which, in fact, create a
denition dilemma. Impressive analysis of current legal framework for the
denition of terrorism in (Margariti, 2017). First, terrorist activity can be
equated with the phenomena of mass political violence with a wide range
of historical and contemporary examples (Monaghan et al., 2011; Sysoev,
2017; Tilly, 2004).
Second, there may be confusion in the phenomena of “insurgency
— guerrilla warfare — (international) terrorism” (Garrison, 2004), or
“revolution — terrorism” (Anderson, 2015). This version of a broad
approach allows discussing the role of even the ISIS movement as an
international terrorist group (Kane, 2018). Third, in the context of so-
called critical research on terrorism, this concept can be “deconstructed”
as a discursive phantom created by states to legitimise their own repressive
policies against certain discriminated sections of the population. This trend
is rightly associated with the approach of the Frankfurt School and the work
of Chomsky (2013), who accuses the US authorities of forming a discourse
on terrorism against the liberation movements.
Critical studies have numerous specic and general theoretical reports,
in particular on the isolation and stigmatisation of the Islamic community
by the British government (Norris, 2015), on the use of terrorism discourse
in international politics as a “weapon of power” (Lorenzana del Villar,
2018), using the concept of combating violent extremism to ensure US
foreign policy (Ambrozik, 2018), etc. Alternative theoretical directions are
represented by the study of the role of gender in international terrorism
(Pearson and Zenn, 2021; White, 2020), or the interpretation of the role of
Islamophobia in the perception of the problem of international terrorism
by Western societies (Karipek, 2020).
More productive are the specic studies of modern international
terrorism as regards its most common movements or tactics. Ibrahim’s
(2020) typical report on such research provides a thorough overview of the
activities of ISIS in Libya, including an analysis of the social and political
aspects of the development of this movement and its political dynamics.
Stenersen (2017) examines the current state of the al-Qaeda movement,
concluding that it is moving towards a state of global franchise, which
embodies the Sala jihadist ideology and relies on the support of local
insurgent movements. An assumption is made about the possibility of
a new intensication of international terror if it is possible to rebuild its
international capacity. Auger (2020) analyses the development, rather
expected than real, of far-right terrorism and extremism. In general, we can
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Vol. 39 Nº 69 (Julio - Diciembre 2021): 581-604
note a wide variety of approaches and methods to the study of international
terrorism in the modern literature (Sandler, 2011). Some aspects of the
study of international terrorism are attempts to identify the role of radical
ideology in its genesis and to nd the background for its theoretical analysis.
Holbrook and Hordan (2019) use the model of “cognition, causation and
inuence” pointing to the non-binary nature of ideological conceptualisation
and emphasising the role of social identity in the emergence of ideological
foundations of terrorism. The inuence of social media on the spread of
terrorist movements is a promising area of analysis of the current dynamics
of international terror, as Miller (2019) reected in the study. In the latest
research on the problem, the scholar’s manifest interest in a range of
theoretical areas. The research line on attempts to analyse international
terrorist activity through the interaction of two groups of actors — states
and terrorist groups through game theory is continued, in particular, in the
studies of Hanley (2017), Mumford (2018), Zahedzadeh (2017), etc.
Hawcroft J. — Intelligence Ocer and current Head of Anti-Terrorist
Programmes of George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies,
provides an overview of the future development of international terrorism
in three main areas: motivation, tactics, goals and technologies. The
forecast points to the predominant role of social motives in the genesis of
terrorist activity of the future, predicting increased violence, attacks on
“faceless” corporations as a personication of inequality and the possibility
of impulsive, public-driven response of state institutions (Howcroft, 2018).
The reverse trend —the reverse shifts from terrorism to legal political
activity— is considered, for example, in the report of Ashour (2020).
A separate aspect of the problem is the policy of countries on international
terrorism. Murphy’s (2017) study of China’s policy should be noted here,
which is a turning, somewhat new, point. After all, China is moving from
its traditional support for radical left-wing Maoism to ensuring stability
within its borders, where it faces ethno-national and religious challenges. It
should be noted that research on the problem of international terrorism is
widely empirically supported. Bowie (2017) provides an overview of 60 key
databases on international terrorism.
Thus, in view of academic interest and numerous studies on the problem
of international terrorism, the existing drawback is the lack of a stable
consensus on the denition of this phenomenon itself. The vast majority of
research is determined by unclear methodology and the vagueness of their
theoretical provisions (Bakker, 2012), which is true today. Many empirical
studies do not have a systemic generalization that would link understanding
of international terrorism as a phenomenon in the more or less stable
theoretical scheme and provide theoretical grounds for identifying its
current trends.
586
Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
Shulha
Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
The objectives of this study are to form a systemic view of international
terrorism, which must overcome a certain diversity of understanding of the
phenomenon in modern academic literature and identify current trends
in its development relying on a stable framework for understanding the
nature of this phenomenon, as well as internal and external factors for its
dynamics.
2. Methods (research design)
The research methodology is reduced to four main ideas. Central to the
study is the provision of an eective denition of international terrorism,
based on a structural and functional approach to the denition of this social
phenomenon. We rely on the organisational concept of terrorism provided
by Comas et al. (2014) as a polymorphic structural form that combines the
features of formal organization, network and social movement. Accordingly,
the main actor in international terrorism, which is connected with the
direct development of terrorist activity, can be dened as “organisation”,
“network” or “movement”.
The objective of identifying current trends involves the analysis of
the dynamics of international terrorism, which is possible through the
periodisation of international terrorism and its consistent transformation
in accordance with changes in society. This aspect is often overlooked by
researchers in constructing generalized concepts of the phenomenon, despite
the availability of special intelligence on the connection of international
terrorism tactics with certain modern technologies (cyberterrorism) or
features of modern society (use of electronic networks by terrorist groups).
Periodisation in the analysis of the dynamics of international terrorism
is associated with the method of concentres. It is obvious that research on
the problem of international terrorism is often based on the materials of
a separate geographical or cultural-geographical centre of the spread of
terrorist activity. For example, these are the Middle East, Northern Ireland
(British), European centres of the spread of terrorism, which have their
own logic of activation and a specic combination of goals and tactics that
guide international terrorist groups.
Such centres have a complex cross-border structure that reects both
the interaction within the terrorist movement and its organisational or
indirect interaction through informational, cultural, political inuences
with countries that are so-called “sponsors of terrorism”. That is, they are
interested in the spread of international terrorist activity as an instrument
of their own foreign policy. Such politico-geographical, or geopolitical, in
the same sense of the term, zones in which international terrorist activity is
formed are dened as “concentres”. By the nature of international terrorism,
587
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 69 (Julio - Diciembre 2021): 581-604
the very acts of terrorist activity can take place outside the concentres,
being only inspired by the existing political, ideological, and socio-cultural
conditions.
The existence of political conditions and interests as organisational
structures of international terrorist movements and states — “sponsors
of terrorism” requires consideration of their relationship. That is,
international terrorist activity must be considered in the context of regional
and international policy. The basic assumption of this study is the impact on
world (regional) public opinion as the main goal of international terrorist
activity in its modern forms, which is achieved by means specic to modern
society, and has a political eect set by terrorists.
In general, the hypothesis of current trends in the development of
international terrorism takes the form of successive changes within
the political and geographical concentres considered in the context of
international (regional) policy and general trends in the development of
concentre’s societies. This structure of the study allows avoiding “monism”,
which is inherent in a number of studies in determining the decisive cause
of terrorist activity, such as religious one, in the denition of “international
Islamic terrorism”. International terrorism is seen as something that
involves: the cross-border scale of the spread of terrorist activity, and the
impact on the international (regional) political process.
The data of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) (n.d.) were used in
order to test the hypothesis regarding the periodisation of the dynamics
of international terrorism. The database includes information on more
than 200,000 terrorist acts (events) since 1970 worldwide. The database
is structured according to 135 variables, which allow classifying terrorist
acts by time, place of events, actor, scale, content, and a number of other
characteristics. The data on the events of the 2000’s are the most complete.
This fact is a limitation on the study.
3. Results
In order to determine the dynamics of global terrorism, the smoothing
of a number of data by a polynomial trend line according to the 6th degree
equation was used, which most fully reects the existing trend (Figure 1).
588
Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
Shulha
Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
Figure 1. Dynamics of the total number of cases of terrorism in the world,
1970 – 2019 (Global Terrorism Database, n.d).
The trend line reveals two waves of dynamics, which are represented by
cycles of rise, peak and decline of terrorist activity worldwide. Detection
of peaks allows dividing a series into certain periods. This is done at the
breaking points of the trend in its upper and lower peaks. Accordingly,
these are the periods: rise (1970 — 1990), decline (1991 — 2002), rise (2003
— 2016), decline (since 2017). The last cycle is not complete, its downward
wave has emerged in the last three years of the study period.
The waves are characterized by increasing intensity (Table 1). This is,
respectively, the average of 2,140 cases per year for the period of rise of
1970-1990, 2,722 cases per year for the period of decline in 1991-2002,
6,899 cases per year for the period of rise in 2003-2016, and 9,898 events
per year in the period of 2017-2019.
Table 1. Number of cases related to terrorist activity by
regions of the world
Years Australia
and Oceania
Central
America
Central
Asia
East Asia Eastern
Europe
Middle
East
1970-1990 112 8,724 0 287 127 4,467
1991-2002 107 1,556 380 359 1,602 5,886
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2003-2016 47 60 176 149 3,309 36,995
2017-2019 39 34 18 30 228 9,066
Years North
America
South
America
South
Asia
Southeast
Asia
South
Africa
Western
Europe
1970-1990 2,190 11,783 3,522 1,628 2,268 9,848
1991-2002 758 5,228 5,313 1,847 2,712 4,194
2003-2016 435 1,807 32,712 7,992 10,612 2,298
2017-2019 315 754 9,754 2,612 6,150 693
Source: Global Terrorism Database (n.d.)
The rst period: 1970 — 1990 (rise). In absolute terms, Central and
South America dominated by the number of terrorist acts in this period. This
structure corresponds to the active concentres of international terrorism.
At the time, they corresponded to an active “left wave” in South and Central
America, where confrontation between governments and left-wing (or right-
wing, as in the case of Nicaragua) guerrilla movements reached the scale of
a civil war. Terrorist tactics were part of this war, and widespread external
intervention by the Soviet Union and the United States contributed to the
internationalization of terrorism. In Western Europe and North America,
terrorist activity has also been linked to left-wing movements that have
had outside contacts and support from Soviet intelligence. The situation
in South Africa was somewhat similar in nature to external intervention,
where local anti-government liberation movements also had Soviet support.
The development of terrorist activity was connected with the activities of
the Soviet special services, and, consequently, with the bloc confrontation.
Cross-contacts between terrorist groups, related political movements and
Soviet special services have been a factor in the integration of international
terrorism.
According to the relative number of terrorist acts per 10 thousand
population according to the Global Terrorism Database, the largest terrorist
activity for the period was observed in El Salvador (10.5 cases), Lebanon
(5.5), Nicaragua (5.5), Rhodesia 3, 1, Peru (2.7), the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip (2.5).
Figure 2 presents data on the dynamics and distribution of terrorist acts
in El Salvador. The data reect the dynamics of terrorist acts characteristic
of active civil conict, with periods of escalation and attenuation of the
conict. Attenuation is possible after retreat of the parties, or the party
to the conict from the tactics of terror. In the case of El Salvador, this
happened after nding a political solution to the conict.
590
Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
Shulha
Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
Figure 2. Dynamics and structure of terrorist acts in El Salvador, 1972 –
1997 (Global Terrorism Database, n.d).
The dynamics is characterized by a high proportion of armed attacks.
Murders and bombings accounted for 47.0% of cases. The structure and
dynamics of the El Salvador conict were typical of the ended conicts of
the period. The events in Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Guatemala, and Nicaragua
were similar.
The period is associated with the expanded Middle East concentre of
international terrorist activity. The turning point was the events of the Islamic
Revolution in Iran in 1979. The events in Iran inspired the radicalisation
of extreme Shiite political movements, giving them a powerful ideological
impetus to build an Islamic republic. The leaders of the revolution came
out with radical anti-Israel rhetoric without entering into direct military
confrontation with this country. Subsequent events have destroyed political
stability in Lebanon, creating a political base for regional military-political
movements in the country that relied on terrorism, especially the Hezbollah
movement.
At the same time, this stage was characterized by a more explicit and
active participation of countries in supporting terrorist movements and
terrorist tactics. These countries were the Islamic Republic of Iran itself
and the countries of the “Iranian axis” — Syria and Libya, the latter was
indirectly supported by the USSR. The structure and nature of the struggle
at that time gave grounds for US diplomacy to talk about the phenomenon
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of “state terrorism” (Finn and Momani, 2017). Its apotheosis was the 1988
terrorist attack on Lockerbie, which was blamed on Libyan intelligence.
The Soviet invasion in Afghanistan in 1979 complicated the confrontation
by weakening its position. The terrorist activity of the 1980’s took place
against the background of the progressive ideological weakening of socialist
movements in the Arab world and the growing rise of their radical Islamic
alternative, such as the ideology of the revolution in Iran.
The second period: 1991 — 2002 (decline). During this period, there has
been a signicant decline or cessation of terrorist activity in the concentres
of Central and South America — with the exception of Colombia. In Western
Europe, in South Africa this is clearly linked to the achievement of a political
settlement and the cessation of the situation of bloc confrontation.
In this period, there is no clear focus on any of the regions. There is
some aggravation in some regions, where the parties to the civil conict are
turning to tactics of terror. The share of terrorist activity cases in the Middle
East, South and Central Asia is increasing. This was due to the active phase
of the conicts in Algeria, Pakistan, and the continuing confrontation in
Lebanon.
The structure of terrorist activity cases in Lebanon (Figure 3) shows a
slightly dierent situation from the guerrilla war of the previous period.
Bombings and killings play a predominant role, which account for 79.4%
of terrorist acts. In Pakistan it is 56.5%, in Algeria — 50.0%, in Colombia —
53.8%, in the Palestinian Authority and the Gaza Strip — 48.9%.
In the 1990’s, there was a steady downward trend in the number of
international terrorist acts (Tilly, 2004:7). Despite the emergence of global
satellite news channels in the early 1990’s, which objectively multiplied
the eects of terrorist acts, international terrorism was experiencing a
decline caused by some deadlocks of the struggle in its leading concentres.
As a result of the Iran-Iraq war, the First Gulf War, and the collapse of
the military bloc system, a combination of circumstances led to the
temporary deradicalization of the leading motive for terrorist activity in
the Middle East, the Arab-Israeli confrontation in Palestine. The “sponsors
of terrorism” states were losing their political motives to actively support
anti-Israel movements; in the social realities of the 1990’s, symbolic acts
of terror on a global scale could not nd a resonance, and Israel itself was
involved in a compromise-oriented dialogue. In European and South Asian
concentres, terrorist activity has been declining since the early 1980’s due
to political changes that discredited radical communist ideology.
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Figure 3. Dynamics and structure of terrorist acts in Lebanon, 1978 –
2001 (Global Terrorism Database, n. d.)
Third period: 2003 — 2016 (rise), the beginning of the upward wave of
2017 — 2019. During this period, the role of political events related to the
War on Terror, the leading events of which were the US invasion in Iraq and
Afghanistan, and with the Arab Spring in the early 2010’s, is unconditional.
At the beginning of the period, three countries in the Middle East and South
Asia — Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — accounted for more than half
of the total number of terrorist attacks. The structure of cases in Iraq is
similar to that in Lebanon, with an even higher proportion of bombings of
73.4%. In 2013-2019, the number of terrorist attacks in Syria, Egypt and
Libya became noticeable. Since 2015, suicide bomber attacks as the basis
of ISIS terrorist tactics have become a signicant phenomenon. A number
of countries, where there was a decline in terrorist activity in the previous
period, experienced a new cycle of confrontation. In particular, Colombia,
Turkey, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines experienced the second
wave of terrorist activity.
Figures 4 and 5 show the structure of terrorist attacks in Lebanon during
the active phase of the conict in 1979-1989, and in Afghanistan in 2003-
2019.
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Vol. 39 Nº 69 (Julio - Diciembre 2021): 581-604
Figure 4. Targets of the terrorist attacks in Lebanon during the active
phase of the 1979-1989 conict (Global Terrorism Database, n.d.)
Figure 5. Targets of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan during the active
phase of the 2003-2019 conict (Global Terrorism Database, n.d.)
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As we can see, they are typically similar, with the dierence that the
targets of terrorist attacks in Lebanon were more often private individuals,
non-governmental military units and diplomatic missions. This reects the
peculiarities of the political confrontation in the country.
The identication of concentres of terrorist activity indicates the
following sequence of stages in the development of global terrorism.
International terrorism is a changing problem in modern international
relations. According to Google Books Ngram Viewer, interest in it arose
after World War II and began to grow rapidly from the early 1970’s, when
the resonant acts were made, and 2004 with a signicant decline in the
mid-1990’s and in present.
The rst stage covers the end of the 1960’s — 1970’s. This stage in the
development of international terrorism is associated with the Middle
East (Israel and Palestine) and European centres of terrorist activity.
The transition to international terrorist activity in the Middle East was
obviously due to a set of circumstances — the loss of condence of the
societies of Arab countries in the possibility of achieving a military victory
over Israel, the radicalisation of the Palestinian diaspora, political changes
in Western societies. The Doomsday War of 1973 nally revealed Israel’s
military superiority over its immediate opponents — Egypt and Syria, which
had the opposite eect. The beginning of the Camp David process and the
search for peaceful coexistence by Egypt, and the transition of Palestinian
groups, including the Palestine Liberation Organization, to asymmetric
action tactics. Resonant terrorist acts of the 1970’s: the terrorist attacks in
Munich (1972), at the airport in Lod (1972) and in Harturm (1973) were
striking examples of attacks on symbolic objects to demoralise society of
Israel and an attempt to achieve changes in public opinion in the West. On
the one hand, such acts created the image of terrorists for the Palestinian
movement, on the other hand, they urged the theme of the struggle in the
Middle East in public opinion, providing an information pretext and a
platform for pro-Palestinian intellectuals.
The shifts in Western societies have made this tactic quite rational for
many reasons. The 1970’s were a turning point in the end of the “Glorious
Thirty Years” — the military and pre-war generations departed from active
participation in public life, the active post-war generation of intellectuals
at that time was formed in the conditions of the anti-war campaigns of the
1960’s and suered the consequences of the economic shocks of the early
1970’s, which ended the period of continuous post-war rise. The spread of
colour television for the rst time allowed broadcasting “real-time terrorist
attacks” to an international audience. A set of complex inuences on public
opinion led to the emergence of the intellectual movement represented by N.
Chomsky. The anti-war and radical sentiments created during the Vietnam
War were transferred to the realities of the Middle East and to the political
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support for Israel by the governments of the United States and other Western
countries. Palestinian terrorism has received direct or indirect support from
other political forces interested in destabilising Israel and Western societies,
most notably the Soviet Union, its satellites, and its allies.
At the same time, the actual European concentre of international
terrorism, represented by radical left-wing terrorist organisations, was
being formed. Red Brigades, the Red Army Faction, and others deployed
at the turn of the 1960’s and 1970’s amid destroyed hopes of radical change
during the events of the May 1968 Revolution in France, the political isolation
of the Communist Party in Italy, and the limited political capabilities of
Europe’s radical left-wing movements in a military bloc confrontation.
The concentre of terrorist activity in Southeast Asia has been linked to
the spread of Maoist ideology and the support of the Chinese Communist
Party, which has inspired and inuenced Chinese ethnic minorities in the
region.
Thus, the stage includes the Middle East concentre being associated with
shifts in the societies of the region. It is based on the emergence of radical
fundamentalist ideologies, embodied by the al-Qaeda movement, and
the largest symbolic act — the attack on the Twin Towers in New York on
September 11, 2001. We consider the political impasse in the modernisation
of societies in the region achieved at the beginning of the 21
st
century to be
the root cause of the transition to asymmetric actions and symbolic attacks
at this stage. Authoritarian regimes with exhausted opportunities to develop
their own ideology (that is authoritarian regimes in crisis of legitimacy),
demographic collapse, culture shock from modernisation combined with
insucient economic growth and a high degree of social inequality — this
set of circumstances is extremely favourable for the development of radical
ideologies and radical movements, the suppression of which leads them to
the practice of asymmetric actions.
While the acquisition of a regional scale by terrorism in the Middle East
can be explained by the region’s Arab and Islamic unity, its international
and anti-Western, anti-American orientation will need to be further
explained. The United States also act as the embodiment of modernization
shifts opposed by the radical ideology of Islamic fundamentalism; and as a
political partner of authoritarian regimes against which radical movements
are directed; and as the object of traditional criticism by these regimes,
which often base their ideology on anti-Americanism. In this sense, the
terrorist struggle of the 2000’s is seen as a direct response to the process
and ideology of globalisation.
Thus, the current trends of modern international terrorism should be
seen in the development of the logic of the development of terrorist activity
of its leading centres in modern social and political conditions. We consider
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Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
the events of the Arab Spring of 2010 to be the driving force behind this
process. The Arab Spring of 2010 has to some extent covered most of the
countries of the large (including North Africa) Middle East region. But not
in all cases has it led to the establishment of a regular competitive political
process, which creates risks of a shift to asymmetric action and political
violence. As it turned out, this mainly applies to countries where there has
been a collapse of societies and state power — Libya, Syria, northern Iraq.
The emergence of the ISIS movement and its rapid military-political
successes, the promotion of an eective radical fundamentalist ideology
that combines the features of Islamic Reformation and fascism is “a truly
modern totalitarian project”, as dened by Lohlker (2017), put the region
the threat of a global collapse, the political consequences of which and
their unacceptability for the international community are obvious. Joining
forces for the confrontation of ISIS, which by the middle of the decade
acquired the features of a state and conducted “almost” conventional
military confrontation with the region (embodying the so-called “fth
wave” of international terrorism — the emergence of “semi-states” formed
by terrorist movements (Honig and Yahel, 2019), inevitably put this
movement before the alternative of using asymmetric actions, which was
the case on a large scale.
The international terrorist movement personied by the ISIS has
acquired a number of innovative features. They include the widespread use
of the media and tactics of network terror. ISIS distinguished by the systemic
creation of directed acts of symbolic terror actively using electronic media
and social networks for the broadcast. Even acts of military cruelty, such
as mass executions and the extremely widespread use of suicide bombers,
were given the form of acts of symbolic terror and broadcasted to a wide
audience. The tactics of network terror are the involvement of random
supporters in terrorist acts, who are not organisationally connected with
the movement, but organise terrorist acts in accordance with the campaign
materials created by the movement and terrorist campaigns launched by the
movement. Terror initiated in this way acquires the features of spontaneity,
unpredictability, mass, promotes the emotional involvement of entire
ethnic or social categories of people and the accelerated formation of
appropriate stereotypes of public opinion. The mass migrations of refugees
that accompanied the events of the mid-2010’s exacerbated this trend.
An eective fundamentalist ideology, a network structure that brings this
terrorist wave closer to dening the movement than to the organization, along
with the practice of network terror contributes to the further spread of the
Middle East concentre and its reach of the territorial borders of Central Africa
(including existing Muslim communities, including where the Boko Haram
movement operates), and to Europe, where migration results in the formation
of Islamic communities in which activists of radical movements operate.
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4. Discussion
The given understanding of the dynamics and current state of
international terrorism, as noted, is based on the understanding of its
content as a triad: asymmetric actions, attacks on symbolic objects, the
focus on public opinion. This is dierent from Crenshaw’s (1981) traditional
model, which structures individual motives for terrorist behaviour, group
decision-making and strategy development, and the broad socio-political
context in which terrorist activity develops, and which is too broad and
schematic to understand the root of the phenomenon.
In the modern literature, the discussion around terrorism has focused
on the content of the radicalisation process with analytical models of
political terrorism, which are developed on modern materials, aimed at
building models of involvement in terrorist activity being close to socio-
psychological models. Thus, Moghaddam’s (2005) “steps” model considers
involvement in terrorism as an evolution in the views of an individual
who joins a terrorist organisation. Today, a group of concepts has been
developed on its basis, including the concept of two pyramids — views
and actions (McCauley and Moskalenko, 2008). The attitudes-behaviours
corrective (ABC) model also focuses on mechanisms to justify violence in
the organisation of terror campaigns (Khalil et al., 2019).
The focus on such models ultimately theoretically equates terrorism
and international terrorism with acts of political violence, conceptually
reducing them to individual nature. That can reduce the problem even to
denitions of “mental disorder”, which can sometimes be found even in
recent works (Kruglanski et al., 2017; Kunst et al., 2018). Even political
models of terrorism are based on the understanding of terrorism as the
beginning of a closed autonomous group (Kudinov et al., 2020; Wilkinson,
2011).
The proposed approach is rationalistic in the sense that international
terrorism is seen as a rational political strategy that has its own logic of
application and is embedded in a sequence of other, including conventional,
means of political confrontation. It is obvious that such an approach on the
basis of modern materials can solve the dilemma of denitions and reach a
lasting consensus on the framework structure of the academic denition of
terrorism and international terrorism. The distinction between international
terrorism and other forms of radical political struggle, which is not reduced
to political violence (Sysoev, 2017), can be identied and clearly traced,
and identications with revolutionary movements are avoided (Anderson,
2015).
The given understanding of modern terrorism in the context of its
development allows removing the characteristic of the critical approach
“deconstructive” interpretations of international terrorism in the spirit
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Ivo Svoboda, Tymur O. Loskutov, Oleksandra B. Severinova, Olha M. Peresada y Andriy O.
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Current Trends in the Development of International Terrorism: A Current Understanding of the
Problem
of the Chomsky’s (2013) school. A clear understanding of terrorism as a
rational strategy is determined by the frequency of stages of development
and its own political logic, which eliminates the uncertainty of denitions,
removes the problem of “constructed” discourses and “stigmatisation”
(Lorenzana del Villar, 2018; Norris, 2015).
The results of the study raise a number of theoretical issues that
require further research. In particular, on the mechanisms of inuence of
terrorist acts (“symbolic attacks”) on modern society. The expected result of
terrorist attacks in Europe was the growth of right-wing terrorism (Bjørgo
and Ravndal, 2019) (which is not justied). However, the motives of the
terrorist movements themselves, which in the situation of network terror
become less predictable and stable, are poorly studied.
Today, a wide range of denitions of the concept of terrorism and
international terrorism is used, which distinguish its individual essential
features. Consistently, these include the interpretation of terrorism
as: politically motivated violence by organised groups against non-
combatants, which usually has the purpose of inuencing the audience,
means of intimidation the use of fear for political, religious or ideological
purposes (Lykhova et al., 2021; Schmid, 2004) directed activities against
civilian targets by a non-state actor (Ganor, 2018), violent activities aimed
at psychological inuence (Wang and Zhuang, 2017), a certain culture of
terror (Aran, 2019).
Analysis of the denitions of terrorism in the context of its political
dynamics points to the key objectives of international terrorist activity and
its dierences from other types of conventional and unconventional actions
in armed conicts. First, international terrorism develops as a means of
asymmetric action — it is an asymmetric response in a confrontation of
a terrorist movement with a party to the conict (almost always it is the
political regime of a country or group of countries) when this confrontation
cannot be reduced to a certain, possibly negative balance of power. That is,
when the opposing party has a sucient advantage in conventional forces
and means to obtain a complete victory. Therefore, the transition to terrorist
activity is dictated by the forced need for asymmetric unconventional
confrontation. Second, such activity does not have the power structures of
the opposite side as its direct addressee. Although they may be the target
of individual terrorist acts, directing terrorist activity at them in certain
conditions of confrontation does not make sense, because due to the
fundamental dierence in force potentials, it cannot lead to victory in the
military confrontation.
The targets of terrorist attacks are symbolic objects, and the addressee is
national, regional or world public opinion. Thus, thirdly, the victory in the
asymmetric confrontation waged by terrorist means is achieved through
the inuence on public opinion and the initiation of negative processes for
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the policy of the ruling regime. The desired result of terrorist attacks is the
discrediting of the ruling political forces and their leaders, the initiation of
civil disobedience campaigns, the destabilisation of the political situation
and the formation of a political crisis, the deepest demoralisation of society.
The third consequence follows from this — international terrorism is a
struggle for public opinion, terrorist acts are symbolic acts. The struggle,
which in the conditions of a more favourable balance of power turns into a
sabotage against government ocials and law enforcement agencies in order
to gain direct political control over the territory is no longer terrorism in the
modern sense of the word. Here is the divide between terrorism and other
forms of unconventional confrontation — guerrilla warfare, insurrection,
political revolution. It is clear from this understanding where terrorism and
other types of unconventional confrontation can intersect and intertwine
(for example, according to the spectrum of non-state combatants provided
in the classication of Zohar (2016).
The ability to provide a symmetrical force response and to wage a
symmetrical struggle, such as a military one, encourages the retreat from
terrorist means, as they are less advantageous in terms of resources and
benets, and the struggle for territory — gaining political power — is the
ultimate goal of political struggle. Acts of symmetrical confrontation which
resemble terrorism are diversions in nature.
The dierence between international and national (domestic) terrorism
is the dierence in the scale of public opinion on which the inuence
achieved by means of terrorist activity is directed. In the case of domestic
terrorism, it is national public opinion, and the confrontation takes place in
a national symbolic and informational context. In the case of international
terrorism, the confrontation takes place in a more complex context, which
includes global public opinion and national one, for example, within the
region. The terrorist struggle presupposes the availability of eective mass
media for the transmission of a symbolic act to public opinion. In case of
international terrorism, it is the international media, and with the advent of
electronic sources — cross-border media.
Conclusions
The study of current trends in the development of international terrorism
is topical due to the acute political urgency and variability of this phenomenon.
The study of international terrorism, as well as terrorism in general, despite
the long history and rootedness of the phenomenon in modern politics, has
a problem of lack of academic consensus on the fundamental problems of
dening this phenomenon, which indicates problems with understanding
its nature, thus complicating the understanding of its current state and
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dynamics of development. The dilemma of denitions inherent in the
study of international terrorism allows us to even form concepts for the
deconstructive refutation of this phenomenon as existing only as a phantom
concept in the imposed repressive discursive practices.
The study proposed a clear model for understanding international
terrorism as a rational strategy for unconventional political struggle. This
model is based on three successive principles: the transition to asymmetric
actions, attacks on symbolic targets, inuencing public opinion as the main
goal. Such a triad of features, linked to a model of the political process,
denes the existence of international terrorism as a phenomenon and
provides a key to understanding its dynamics.
The proposed periodisation of the development of international
terrorism is based on the identication of concentres as political and
geographical zones in which contradictions are formed and the political
struggle that they inspire, which is part of the logic of terrorist strategy. We
distinguish ve stages in the development of international terrorism (late
1960’s — 1970’s, 1980’s, “pause” of the 1990’s; 2000’s and 2010’s), which
have a single internal logic, but dier in external circumstances due to the
participation of external actors and changes in the development of societies.
Prospects for future research include an analysis of the mechanisms
of the impact of symbolic attacks on targeted public opinion, the role of
modern online media and the level of perception of international terrorism
by modern societies.
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