Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Derecho Público "Dr. Humberto J. La Roche"
de la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas de la Universidad del Zulia
Maracaibo, Venezuela
Esta publicación cientíca en formato digital es continuidad de la revista impresa
ISSN-Versión Impresa 0798-1406 / ISSN-Versión on line 2542-3185Depósito legal pp
197402ZU34
ppi 201502ZU4645
Vol.39 N° 68
Enero
Junio
2021
Recibido el 04/07/2020 Aceptado el 26/01/2021
ISSN 0798- 1406 ~ De si to le gal pp 198502ZU132
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas
La re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas, es una pu bli ca ción aus pi cia da por el Ins ti tu to
de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co “Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che” (IEPDP) de la Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas de la Uni ver si dad del Zu lia.
En tre sus ob je ti vos fi gu ran: con tri buir con el pro gre so cien tí fi co de las Cien cias
Hu ma nas y So cia les, a tra vés de la di vul ga ción de los re sul ta dos lo gra dos por sus in ves-
ti ga do res; es ti mu lar la in ves ti ga ción en es tas áreas del sa ber; y pro pi ciar la pre sen ta-
ción, dis cu sión y con fron ta ción de las ideas y avan ces cien tí fi cos con com pro mi so so cial.
Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas apa re ce dos ve ces al año y pu bli ca tra ba jos ori gi na les con
avan ces o re sul ta dos de in ves ti ga ción en las áreas de Cien cia Po lí ti ca y De re cho Pú bli-
co, los cua les son so me ti dos a la con si de ra ción de ár bi tros ca li fi ca dos.
ESTA PU BLI CA CIÓN APA RE CE RE SE ÑA DA, EN TRE OTROS ÍN DI CES, EN
:
Re vicyhLUZ, In ter na tio nal Po li ti cal Scien ce Abs tracts, Re vis ta In ter ame ri ca na de
Bi blio gra fía, en el Cen tro La ti no ame ri ca no para el De sa rrol lo (CLAD), en Bi blio-
gra fía So cio Eco nó mi ca de Ve ne zue la de RE DIN SE, In ter na tio nal Bi blio graphy of
Po li ti cal Scien ce, Re vencyt, His pa nic Ame ri can Pe rio di cals In dex/HAPI), Ul ri ch’s
Pe rio di cals Di rec tory, EBS CO. Se en cuen tra acre di ta da al Re gis tro de Pu bli ca cio-
nes Cien tí fi cas y Tec no ló gi cas Ve ne zo la nas del FO NA CIT, La tin dex.
Di rec to ra
L
OIRALITH
M. C
HIRINOS
P
ORTILLO
Co mi té Edi tor
Eduviges Morales Villalobos
Fabiola Tavares Duarte
Ma ría Eu ge nia Soto Hernández
Nila Leal González
Carmen Pérez Baralt
Co mi té Ase sor
Pedro Bracho Grand
J. M. Del ga do Ocan do
José Ce rra da
Ri car do Com bel las
An gel Lom bar di
Die ter Nohlen
Al fre do Ra mos Ji mé nez
Go ran Ther born
Frie drich Welsch
Asis ten tes Ad mi nis tra ti vos
Joan López Urdaneta y Nil da Ma rín
Re vis ta Cues tio nes Po lí ti cas. Av. Gua ji ra. Uni ver si dad del Zu lia. Nú cleo Hu ma nís ti co. Fa-
cul tad de Cien cias Ju rí di cas y Po lí ti cas. Ins ti tu to de Es tu dios Po lí ti cos y De re cho Pú bli co
“Dr. Hum ber to J. La Ro che”. Ma ra cai bo, Ve ne zue la. E- mail: cues tio nes po li ti cas@gmail.
com ~ loi chi ri nos por til lo@gmail.com. Te le fax: 58- 0261- 4127018.
Vol. 39, Nº 68 (Enero - Junio) 2021, 251-272
IEPDP-Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Políticas - LUZ
Economic and nancial results of the
USA and the European Union sanctions
war against Russia: rst results
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3968.16
Ilmir Nusratullin *
Raul Yarullin **
Tagira Ismagilova ***
Olga Eremeeva ****
Tatiana Ermoshina *****
Abstract
As part of this study, the goal is set to assess the impact of
sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union
on the economy and nancial sector of Russia, to identify the
effectiveness of the initial goals of these countries. To achieve the
goal, the legal acts concerning the imposed sanctions of the USA and the
European Union against Russia were rst analyzed, a chronology of events
was described, and sanctions were classied. Further, based on the data
of the World Bank and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian
Federation, the results of the sanction pressure on the Russian economy
and nancial sector were estimated. Then the results of this study were
compared with the results obtained by other scholars. The paper concluded
that the sanctions of the United States and the European Union did have an
impact on the economy and nancial sector of Russia, but this inuence was
not as signicant as the leaders of these countries expected. In addition, the
impact of the sanctions is gradually decreasing despite the introduction of
new sanctions on various pretexts.
Keywords: Sanctions against Russia; economic war; nancial pressure
for sanctions; economic sanctions; geopolitical economy.
* Bashkir State University, Russia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7810-2945. Email:
nusratullin.iv@gmail.com
** Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia. ORCID ID: https://
orcid.org/0000-0001-6834-3032. Email: jrr61@mail.ru
*** Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia. ORCID ID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2747-3858. Email: tagira_i@mail.ru
**** Katanov State University of Khakassia, Russia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9258-4610.
Email: yeremeevaos@yandex.ru
***** Ogarev Mordovia State University, Republic of Mordovia. ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-
4575-8969. Email: baricheva@mail.ru
252
Ilmir Nusratullin, Raul Yarullin, Tagira Ismagilova, Olga Eremeeva y Tatiana Ermoshina
Economic and nancial results of the USA and the European Union sanctions war against Russia:
rst results
Resultados económicos y nancieros de la guerra de
sanciones de Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea contra
Rusia: primeros resultados
Resumen
Se estableció el objetivo de evaluar el impacto de las sanciones impuestas
por Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea sobre la economía y el sector
nanciero de Rusia, para identicar la efectividad de los objetivos iniciales
de estas sanciones. Para lograr este objetivo, se analizaron los actos jurídicos
relativos a las sanciones impuestas por EE. UU. y la Unión Europea contra
Rusia, se realizó una cronología de los hechos descritos y las sanciones se
clasicaron, de ahí que se hizo uso del método analítico y de la revisión
documental. Además, sobre la base de los datos del Banco Mundial y el
Servicio de Estadísticas del Estado de la Federación de Rusia, se estimaron
los resultados de la presión de las sanciones sobre la economía. Luego, los
resultados de este estudio se compararon con los resultados obtenidos por
otros académicos. El documento concluyó que las sanciones de Estados
Unidos y la Unión Europea sí tuvieron un impacto en la economía y el
sector nanciero de Rusia, pero esta inuencia no fue tan signicativa como
esperaban los líderes de estos países. Además, el impacto de las sanciones
está disminuyendo gradualmente a pesar de la introducción de nuevas
sanciones con diversos pretextos.
Palabras clave: Sanciones contra Rusia; guerra económica; presión
nanciera de sanciones; sanciones económicas;
economía geopolítica.
Introduction
Economic warfare is a form of political and competitive struggle in which
economic measures weaken or destroy the economic potential of some
country. Modern politicians understand that the physical extermination of
enemies is not always protable; it is more advantageous to build a system
of economic dependence and, through control over the enemy’s resources
and its sales markets, make it work for oneself. The economic war has as
its alternative goal the “peaceful” conquest and retention of new economic
markets (Evsyakova, 2019).
The main principle of economic warfare is the establishment of
dependent economic relations, and in the case of resistance, even the
inclusion of physical forms of inuence, state pressure and extortion under
the threat of the use of armed forces. For this, modern developed countries
have at their disposal special force, intelligence, ideological, psychological,
etc. structures. At the present stage, economic warfare is carried out mainly
253
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 251-272
in three directions: “brain pumping”, economic expansion, and industrial
espionage (Titova, 2006). It can also be carried out by using various
propaganda slogans such as the struggle for democracy, the environment,
the rights of national minorities, and others. In this case, it is closely
connected with the information war (Maan, 2014; Meshcheriakova, 2018).
In addition, economic warfare is closely linked to big politics, as it is the key
to depriving “inconvenient” governments of public support (Martynenko,
2016).
Economic sanctions, suspension of loans from developed countries and
major international nancial and credit organizations pose great difculties
for the economy of the “delinquent” countries, most often the “developing”
ones. The United States and European countries, pursuing an aggressive
foreign policy towards developing countries, prefer to avoid using the
term “economic warfare”. The ruling establishment of the United States
and its allies use such neutral words as “economic sanctions”, “trade and
economic restrictions”, “moratorium”, “prohibitions”, etc. (Kaempfer and
Lowenberg, 2007). However, as a rule, all these restrictions, moratoriums,
and prohibitions taken together can have a powerful effect, designed to
undermine a national economy, provoke social unrest, change of power and
political course (Neuenkirch and Neumeier, 2015).
In general, the modern economic warfare is a confrontation between
two powers or different blocs against each other or against a separate
country using economic sanctions an embargo on the export/import of
new technologies, high-tech goods, partial or complete trade blockade.
Methods such as the collapse of the national currency, of the prices of the
main exported natural resources (especially oil and gas), and of various
industrial and agricultural goods are also used. The totality of economic
sanctions that the West imposed against Russia from 2012 to the present
can be qualied as full-scale economic warfare.
In Neuenkirch and Neumeier (Neuenkirch and Neumeier, 2015), it
was empirically assessed how economic sanctions imposed by the United
Nations and the United States affected the GDP growth of sanctioned
states. In that study, they analyzed 160 countries, of which 67 were subject
to economic sanctions for the period 1976-2012. The authors found that
UN sanctions had a signicant impact on the economic growth of the target
state. On average, the introduction of the UN sanctions reduces the annual
growth rate of real GDP per capita in such a state by more than 2 percentage
points. These negative consequences last for 10 years and lead to an overall
decrease in the national GDP per capita by 25.5%. The comprehensive
economic UN sanctions, that is, embargoes affecting almost all economic
activity, lead to a decrease in GDP growth of more than 5 percentage points.
The effect of the US sanctions is much smaller and less noticeable. The
imposition of the US sanctions reduces the GDP growth of the target state
254
Ilmir Nusratullin, Raul Yarullin, Tagira Ismagilova, Olga Eremeeva y Tatiana Ermoshina
Economic and nancial results of the USA and the European Union sanctions war against Russia:
rst results
by 0.75–1 percentage point. This detrimental effect on growth persists for 7
years and, together, leads to a decrease in GDP of 13.4%.
The objective of this study is to rst assess the impact of sanctions
imposed by the United States and the European Union on the economy and
the nancial sector of Russia, and to identify whether these countries have
achieved their initial goals.
To achieve the objective, the following tasks have been set:
1. To reveal the history of the sanctions confrontation between the
USA, the European Union, and Russia;
2. To give the main characteristics of the imposed sanctions;
3. To reveal the economic and nancial consequences for Russia from
the sanctions confrontation.
1. Materials and Methods
While preparing this paper, regulatory legal acts governing the imposition
of sanctions were analyzed. These are regulations databases of the US
(https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/brieng-room/legislation), the
EU (https://europa.eu/european-union/law_en), and Russia (http://
pravo.gov.ru/ips/). To assess the impact of sanctions on the economies of
the countries, the materials of the World Bank (data.worldbank.org/), and
the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (https://www.
gks.ru/) were used. In addition, the paper used materials from academic
articles of the ScienceDirect database (https://www.sciencedirect.com/).
The study was conducted as follows:
1. First, regulations on the imposed sanctions by the United States and
the European Union against Russia were analyzed, a chronology of
events was described, and the sanctions were classied.
2. Further, based on the data of the World Bank and the Federal
State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the results of the
sanction pressure on the Russian economy and the nancial sector
were estimated.
3. Then the results of the study were compared with the results of
studies by other scholars.
2. Results
The history of the sanctions confrontation of the United States, the
European Union and Russia
255
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 251-272
According to the provisions of international law, sanctions are coercive
measures of an armed and unarmed nature that are applied by subjects
of international law in the established procedural form in response to an
offense in order to prevent it, restore the violated rights and ensure the
responsibility of the offender. Thus, sanctions are coercive measures applied
to a state that violated international legal obligations (Neshataeva, 1992).
Sanctions are inextricably linked with the institution of international legal
responsibility of states – “the responsibility of states for internationally
wrongful acts”.
The history of the application of sanctions imposed in the world from
1915 to 2000 totals 174 cases, of which: the USA imposed sanctions in
109 cases, the UN in 20 cases, the European Union in 14 cases, the United
Kingdom in 16 cases, the Arab League states and its members – in 4 cases,
the Soviet Union and Russia – in 13 cases (Hufbauer et al., 2007).
The modern “sanction warfare” against Russia began in 2012, when the
adoption of the Magnitsky Act in the USA formally repealed the Jackson-
Vanik Amendment to the US Trade Act. The Act gave the President of the
United States the right to set the list of persons responsible for the detention,
ill-treatment and death of Sergey Magnitsky and other serious human rights
violations in the Russian Federation that are subject to sanctions (the ban
on the entry into the United States of such persons; the freezing of assets
and the prohibition of any transactions in connection with the transfer of all
property and property rights of such persons) (Public law, 2012).
The second wave of the anti-Russian sanctions falls on the period of
the political crisis in Ukraine in 2014-2019. In addition, the United States
and the European Union imposed sanctions against Russia in connection
with the support of the Governments of Venezuela and Syria, cooperation
with Iran and the DPRK. One should also recall the scandal about alleged
Russian interference in US elections and the Skripals case.
After classifying the reasons for the imposition of sanctions against
Russia, they look as follows (according to the US and the EU regulations):
1. The Magnitsky Act of 2012. Large-scale sanctions against Russia
began to be introduced in 2013 due to the death of a Russian auditor
Sergey Magnitsky. In the West, they believe that his death in 2009
was caused by the exposure of corruption schemes for tax returns,
which could have involved Russian ofcials and security forces.
The Magnitsky Act, originally directed against persons who, in the
opinion of the American authorities, could have been involved in the
death of the auditor, later began to apply to those responsible for
violating human rights and the rule of law both in Russia and around
the world.
256
Ilmir Nusratullin, Raul Yarullin, Tagira Ismagilova, Olga Eremeeva y Tatiana Ermoshina
Economic and nancial results of the USA and the European Union sanctions war against Russia:
rst results
2. The conict in Ukraine the situation around Crimea. The most
ambitious sanctions are related to the annexation of Crimea to Russia
and events in the east of Ukraine.
3. Cyber-attacks. Sanctions for cyber-attacks were introduced by Barack
Obama on April 1, 2015. They allow the U.S. Treasury Department to
block in the country any assets of individuals suspected of committing
cyber-attacks.
4. Opponents of America. On August 2, 2017, US President Donald
Trump signed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through
Sanctions Act (CAATSA). It imposes additional restrictions on Iran,
North Korea and Russia.
5. For ties with Syria, Venezuela, and the DPRK. The smallest groups of
sanctions against Russia are those for supporting the Governments
of Syria and Venezuela and deals with the DPRK authorities.
6. The Skripals case. On August 27, 2018, the sanctions entered into
force that do not directly affect individuals or legal entities. They are
connected with the poisoning of the ex-colonel of the GRU Sergey
Skripal and his daughter Julia in British Salisbury.
The economic sanctions of the USA and Western countries, applied in
recent years against Russia, can be regarded only as a return to the sanctions
campaign during the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The noted sanctions
have become a common foreign policy tool of Western countries, one of the
elements of the Russia containment strategy. Moreover, in many respects,
the introduction of the sanctions is connected with far-fetched reasons, not
conrmed even during investigations, for example, cyber-attacks during
the US presidential election.
2.1 Key features of the US and the EU sanctions
According to the type of sanctions, then they can be classied as (Bagheri
and Akbarpour, 2016):
1. Personal – sanctions against particular people (ofcials, participants
in conicts, businessmen, company managers, etc.) who are
prohibited from entering the territory of the country imposing
sanctions, as well as freezing assets.
2. Against companies/organizations sanctions against particular
companies and organizations that are prohibited from operating in
the country imposing sanctions, as well as with its companies and
organizations, and freezing of assets.
257
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 251-272
3. Economic – economic measures of a prohibitive nature in the eld of
trade and economic cooperation.
4. Financial a set of prohibitive measures in the eld of nance and
nancial cooperation.
5. Diplomatic – a set of measures of a prohibitive nature in the eld of
political cooperation.
Classifying the sanctions by the countries that introduced them, the
situation is as follows (Table 1).
Country Sanctions imposed
Australia Supported the US sanctions, introduced sanctions lists
against citizens and companies of the Russian Federation
Albania Joined the individual and general EU sanctions
Georgia Canceled several interstate meetings. Refused to impose
other sanctions
Israel Banned the supply of weapons and military technology
Iceland Joined the majority of individual and general EU sanctions
Liechtenstein Joined the majority of individual and general EU sanctions
Moldova Joined the majority of the EU sanctions, banned
broadcasting of several Russian TV channels
Norway Consistently joined the EU sanctions, canceled military
and economic cooperation
New Zealand Introduced personal sanctions, supported Australia in
banking sanctions
Ukraine Joined the majority of individual and general EU sanctions,
banned broadcasting of Russian TV channels
Switzerland Introduced individual and economic sanctions
Montenegro Supported part of the EU individual and general sanctions
Japan Stopped visa mitigation negotiations, disputed territory
negotiations, introduced individual and economic
sanctions
Table 1. Countries supporting the US and the EU sanctions against
Russia
Source: (RIA, 2020).
258
Ilmir Nusratullin, Raul Yarullin, Tagira Ismagilova, Olga Eremeeva y Tatiana Ermoshina
Economic and nancial results of the USA and the European Union sanctions war against Russia:
rst results
Further, let us consider the list of economic, nancial, and diplomatic
sanctions imposed by the US and the EU from 2014 to 2020 (Table 2).
Reason/
Type of
sanctions
Ukraine/Crimea
The Skripals poisoning
Economic Licensing of US exports of
defense goods and services to
Russia terminated in the USA
(2014)
In the US, it is forbidden to
sell high-tech goods to Russia
that could enhance the combat
readiness of the army (2014)
The EU imposed an embargo on
the import and export of weapons
to Russia, a ban on the export of
dual-use goods and technologies
for military use (2014)
In the USA, the supply of
equipment and technologies to
the deep oil and gas production,
development of the Arctic shelf
and production of shale oil and gas
reserves to Russia was prohibited
(2014)
U.S. Department of Defense was
banned from allocating funds for
military cooperation with Russia
(2016)
The supply of foreign aid
to Russia, with the exception
of emergency humanitarian
aid, was terminated.
The supply of food and
agricultural products, the
sale of arms and any defense
goods, defense services,
design and construction
services were stopped. The
US also refuses to issue any
loans and credit guarantees
to Russia. The US may
tighten these sanctions if
Moscow does not provide
guarantees for the non-use
of chemical and biological
weapons (2018)
Financial The US investment and military
cooperation with Russia frozen
(2014)
The European Investment Bank
stopped nancing projects in
Russia (2014)
A ban was introduced in
the EU on investments in the
infrastructure, transport and
energy sectors, as well as oil and
gas production in the Russian
Federation (2014)
The EU investments in Crimea
and Sevastopol (2014) were
prohibited.
The US requires
international nancial
organizations not to provide
Russia with any international
loans or nancial/technical
assistance. The Government
also prohibits any US bank
from granting any loans
or credits to the Russian
government – with the
exception of loans or credits
intended to purchase food or
other agricultural goods or
products (2019)
259
CUESTIONES POLÍTICAS
Vol. 39 Nº 68 (Enero - Junio 2021): 251-272
Diplomatic The EU – Russia Summit
canceled (2014)
The EU embassies in Russia
are forbidden to issue visas to
residents of Crimea (2014)
The work of the Russian-
American Presidential Commission
(2014) was terminated
The US and its allies
announced the expulsion of
Russian diplomats. Twenty-
nine countries together
expelled more than 150
Russian diplomats and
diplomatic representatives.
The US expelled more
Russians than all, over 60
people, followed by the UK –
23 people (2018)
Table 2. Economic, nancial and political sanctions of the US and the
EU from 2014 to 2020
Source: (Ageev and Yarmoshchuk, 2020)
As can be seen from the table, the most painful sanctions of the US and
the EU are those in the eld of technical and scientic cooperation, in the
eld of banning nancing of Russia and companies and organizations from
Russia by nancial organizations of the West, except for short-term loans.
Next, let us consider the individual sanctions and sanctions against
companies and organizations imposed by the US and the EU (Table 3).
Reason for imposing sanctions
Number
of citizens
of Russia
Number of
companies and
organizations
The death of Sergey Magnitsky, corruption
and violation of human rights
57 1
Annexing of Crimea and events in the east
of Ukraine
286 478
Cyber-attacks vs the US 27 11
Sanctions under the Countering America’s
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
(CAATSA)
32 42
Supporting the Government of Syria 12 6
Supporting the Government of Venezuela 0 3
Sale of goods or weapons to the DPRK,
Iran, and Syria
6 11
The Skripals case 4 0
Table 3. The number of legal entities and individuals subject to
sanctions (data in the lists may be duplicated)
Source: (Sapronova et al., 2020).